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IZVORNI I ZNANSTVENI ČLANCI – ORIGINAL SCIENTIFIC PAPERS Šumarski list br. 3–4, CXXXV (2011), 113-126 UDK 630* 188 + 111.8 (001) PREDICTION OF FORESTVEGETATION SHIFT DUE TO DIFFERENT CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS IN SLOVENIA PROGNOZAPROMJENAŠUMSKE VEGETACIJE ZBOG RAZLIČITIH SCENARIJAKLIMATSKIH PROMJENAU SLOVENIJI 12 Lado KUTNAR, Andrej KOBLER ABSTRACT: By using an empirical GIS model, the potential spatial changes of forest vegetation driven by expected climate change have been analysed. Based on the three different scenarios predicting climate warming in Slovenia (the mean, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios), the simulation showed that the share of vegetation types will be altered under the impacts of climate change, and the shift of vegetation belts upwards might be expected. By the year 2100, the share of mesic beech forests is likely to decrease. From ecological, – nature-conservation – and forest-management points of view, the predicted decrease of the share of Dinaric fir-beech forests is especially important. The model predicts an increase of the share of thermophilous forests from the present 14% to a range between 50% (according to the optimistic scenario) and 87% (according to the pessimistic scenario). A significant part of the coniferous forest with Picea abiesand Abies alba predominating might be converted to deciduous forests. Key words:climate change, forest vegetation, model, simulation, climate scenarios INTRODUCTION – Uvod The results of climate research suggest that the risks stern Europe may experience an increase in dry periods caused by weather extremes may increase considerably by the late 21stcentury (Polemio and Casarano, in future (IPCC 2001, 2007).Warmer, drier conditions 2004), and the longest yearly dry period could increase will lead to more frequent and prolonged droughts, as by as much as 50%, especially over France and central well as to a longer fire season and increased fire risk, Europe (Good etal. 2006). particularly in the Mediterranean region (IPCC 2007). Forest ecosystems in Europe are very likely to be Benistonetal. (2007) estimated that countries in strongly influenced by climate change and other global central Europe would experience the same number of changes (Shaver etal. 2000,BlennowandSallhot days as currently occur in southern Europe, and that näs2002, Askeevet al. 2005, Kellomäkiand in the Mediterranean droughts would start earlier in the Leinonen 2005, Maracchi et al. 2005, IPCC year and last longer.The regions most affected could be 2007). Forest area is expected to expand in the north the southern Iberian Peninsula, the Alps, the eastern (White et al. 2000, Kljuev2001, MNRRF 2003, Adriatic coast, and southern Greece.The regions most Shiyatovet al. 2005), but contract in the south prone to an increase in drought risk are the Mediterra-(Metzger et al. 2004, IPCC 2007). Native conifers nean and some parts of central and eastern Europe are likely to be replaced by deciduous trees in western (IPCC 2007).The Mediterranean and even much of ea-and central Europe (Maracchi etal. 2005,Kocaet al. 2006). The distribution of a number of main tree 1 Dr. Lado Kutnar, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Department of species might decrease in the Mediterranean (Schrö- Forest Ecology, Večna pot 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia; teret al. 2005). lado.kutnar@gozdis.si 2 Mag.Andrej Kobler, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Department of At higher elevations in theAlps, net primary pro- Forest and Landscape Planning and Monitoring,Večna pot 2, ductivity (NPP) is likely to increase throughout the SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia; andrej.kobler@gozdis.si |