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ŠUMARSKI LIST 3-4/2011 str. 24     <-- 24 -->        PDF

L. Kutnar, A. Kobler: PREDICTION OF FORESTVEGETATION SHIFT DUE TO DIFFERENT ... Šumarski list br. 3–4, CXXXV (2011), 113-126


century. However, by the end of the century (2071 to
2100) in continental central and southern Europe,NPP
of conifers is likely to decrease due to water limitations
(Lasch etal. 2002,Lexer etal. 2002,Martínez-
Vilalta and Pińol 2002, Freeman et al. 2005,
Körner et al. 2005) and higher temperatures
(Pretzch and Dursky 2002). Negative impacts of
drought on deciduous forests are also possible (Broadmeadowetal.
2005).


Abiotic hazards for forests are likely to increase, although
expected impacts are regionally specific and will
be substantially dependent on the forest management system
used (Kellomäki andLeinonen 2005). Fire
danger, length of the fire season, and fire frequency and
severity are expected to increase in the Mediterranean
(Santos et al. 2002, Pausas 2004, Pereira et al.
2005,Moriondo etal. 2006), and lead to the increased
dominance of shrubs over trees (Mouillot et al.
2002).Although to a lesser degree, the danger of fire is
also likely to increase in central, eastern and northern
Europe (Goldammer etal. 2005,Kellomäki et al.
2005,Moriondoetal. 2006).


Slovenia, situated on the transition between the Mediterranean
and central Europe, between the mountain
region of theAlps and the Dinaric range, is the under
influence of the Mediterranean and of the continental
climate of the mountainous ranges and of the Pannonia
basin (Wraber 1969). The evidence on climate
change can also be found in datasets of air temperature
and precipitation amounts (Bergant2007).


The aim of this study is to simulate the future forest
vegetation in Slovenia driven by expected climate
change. Taking into consideration different climate-
change scenarios for this region, changes of forest vegetation
will be predicted.


MATERIALAND METHODS – Materijali i metode


Forest vegetation in Slovenia –


Diverse vegetation patterns have been recognised in
Slovenian forests: in periodically flooded lowlands, in
narrow strips along the rivers and brooks, forests of
willows (Salix sp.), alders (Alnus glutinosa (L.)
Gaertn., Alnus incana (L.) Moench), ashes (Fraxinus
excelsiorL.,Fraxinus oxycarpaWilld.), and common
oak (Quercus robur L.) grow. In the hilly areas above
the floodplains, where for the most part the forests have
now been converted to farmland, is the region of mixed
forests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.)
and hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.). In the mountainous
areas, these change gradually into forests with predominantly
beech (Fagus sylvaticaL.) trees.The beech
forests with mixtures of different broadleaves and conifers
cover the major part of the forested area of the country,
and the Dinaric forest of common beech and silver
fir (Abies albaMiller) is one of the most extensive forest
communities in the country. In the Alpine region, together
with Norway spruce (Picea abies(L.) Karst.), and
European larch (Larix deciduaMill.), more or less pure
beech forests reach up to the belt of the dwarf mountain
pine (Pinus mugoTurra) in the Dinaric range.


On extremely warm, steeper sites all over the country,
mainly on limestone and dolomite terrain, forests
and woodland of different thermophile tree species (e.g.
Ostrya carpinifolia Scop., Fraxinus ornus L. Quercus
pu bescensWilld.) extend.


In its natural range, spruce grows more abundantly
only in theAlpine area, on the high plateaus of the Julian
Alps, and in the Kamnik-SavinjaAlps and Karavanke
Mountains. To a small extent, natural spruce forests
grow in cold valleys and sinkholes in the Dinaric region.


Šumska vegetacija u Sloveniji


However, they also grow on Pohorje Mountain, where
they are, for the most part, not native, and throughout
the country in which they have been disseminated,
mainly by man, for their useful wood. In these areas, the
spruce is much more sensitive to the rigours of the weather
and to the more widespread bark beetles.


Beside woodlands of dwarf mountain pine in the
high-alpine zone, the pine forests are composed of
Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and ofAustrian pine
(Pinus nigra Arnold). The Scots pine can be found
throughout the interior of the country on the poorest
soils, andAustrian pine forests grow on some of the
steeper slopes of the continental part and extend over
the larger part of south-western Slovenia, in the Karst
region. Centuries ago, the deciduous forests of this region
were degraded by logging, burning and pasturing.
Intensive reforestation and afforestation of the Karst
region withAustrian pine started in the middle of the


th


19 century.
This study is focused on the potential forest vegetation,
based on the forest-plant community system by
Košir etal. (1974, 2003), described on 74,123 forest
compartments – the lowest level of the hierarchical forest-
management system – which are sized from 10 to
30 hectares. Based on the similarity of site characteristics
with a special emphasis on climatic factors and according
to criteria of hierarchical classifications of
habitat types (Devillers andDevillers-Teschuren
1996, Jogan et al. 2004), the potential-forest


community types have been agregated together in 13


group or so-called vegetation types (Table 1, Figure 1).