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ŠUMARSKI LIST 3-4/2011 str. 28     <-- 28 -->        PDF

L. Kutnar, A. Kobler: PREDICTION OF FORESTVEGETATION SHIFT DUE TO DIFFERENT ... Šumarski list br. 3–4, CXXXV (2011), 113-126
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On the contrary, the warmer climate predicted by all
three future scenarios will favour drought-tolerant fo-
rest species and vegetation types. It could be expected
that different thermophile forests, which are partly do-
minated by beech trees, but mostly by different
drought-tolerant tree species, like Ostrya carpinifolia
Scop.,Fraxinus ornusL.,Sorbus aria(L.) Cr.,Quercus
pubescens Willd., Q. cerris L., Q. ilex L. and Q. pe-
traea(Matt.) Liebl., and alsoPinus sylvestrisL. andP.
nigra Arnold, will expand over a larger area of the
country. Even different Mediterranean evergreen fo-
rests and maquis shrublands of the order Quercetalia
ilicis, with dominantQuercus ilexL.,Q. cocciferaL.,
Pinus halepensisMill. orCarpinus orientalisMill., si-
milar to current vegetation of the Croatian coastal area
(Trinajstić 2008) could possibly bedistributed over
extreme warm sites in Slovenia. By the end of century,
the share of such thermophile vegetation might be en-
larged from 14.2% to range between 50.4% (optimistic
scenario) to 86.8% (pessimistic scenario) (Graph 2).
Graph2 Forecast share of different thermophile forests (vegetation types of Group 7 and Group 10 are aggregated)
based on different scenarios for three periods
Grafikon 2. Prognozirani udio različitih termofilnih šuma (vegetacija skupina 7 i 10 zajedno) na temelju različitih
scenarija za tri razdoblja
Beside this, the Collinar forests of Quercus pe-
traea and Carpinus betulus, admixed with various
tree species, likePrunus aviumL.,Acer campestreL.,
A. pseudoplatanus L., Tilia cordata Mill., Fraxinus
excelsiorL.,Abies albaMiller,Picea abies(L.) Kar-
sten, growing from plains to hilly areas, from the Sub-
Mediterranean to Pre-Pannonian regions, covering
8.6% of total forest cover, will be spread over larger
area. By the year 2100, the forecast share of these fo-
rests might be between 11.8% (pessimistic scenario)
and 17.8% (optimistic scenario). However, even more
xerothermic vegetation with dominant oak species
(e.g.Quercus cerrisL.,Quercus frainetto Ten.) might
also be expected after such significant warming.
The more commercially interesting coniferous spe-
cies, likePicea abiesandAbies albaare present in di-
verse forest types, and they have significant shares of
the total growing stock (Picea abies: 32%,Abies alba:
8%; Lesnik and Matijašić 2006). However, ta-
king into account potential sites of coniferous domi-
nant vegetation types (including vegetation types 2, 11,
12, 13) the share of these forests is less than 18% of the
total (Table 1). Based on different climate scenarios fo-
recasting the lower ratio between share of coniferous
and broadleaves dominant vegetation types (Graph 3),
the negative impacts of climate warming and water li-
mitations on the coniferous forests of more humid and
colder site conditions were estimated.
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