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L. Kutnar, A. Kobler: PREDICTION OF FORESTVEGETATION SHIFT DUE TO DIFFERENT ... Šumarski list br. 3–4, CXXXV (2011), 113-126


In Slovenia, the coniferous forests might be affected
by warmer climate (Ogris andJurc2010).As in western
and central Europe (Kienast etal. 1998, Maracchi
etal. 2005,Koca etal. 2006), a significant
share of potential coniferous vegetation might be replaced
by forests mainly dominated by deciduous trees.
Native coniferous forests characterised by humid site
conditions and relatively lower average temperatures
might even disappear according to the most pessimistic
scenario, which predicts a rapid increase of temperature
and a decrease of precipitation.


Ashift upward of the treeline by several hundred metres
caused by climate change could be expected (Ba-
deck et al. 2001, Grace et al. 2002); there is some
evidence that this process has already begun in some regions
(Mindas etal. 2000,Kullman 2002,Peńuelas
and Boada 2003, Camarero and Gutiérrez
2004, Shiyatov et al. 2005). In harsh conditions in
Slovenia, where continuous forests are no longer able to
exist, thePinus mugowoodlands are spread in the subalpine
zone, while the scrubland scattered trees of
Larix decidua,Picea abies,Sorbus aucupariaL. subsp.
glabrata(Wimm. & Grab.) Hayek., Fagus sylvaticaL.
and some other more rare species form the upper treeline
in this region. The shift upward of Pinus mugo
woodlands was simulated with the GIS model, and the
change of treeline together with the effect of abandonment
of traditional alpine pastures is predicted as in
other European mountain areas (Guisan andTheurillat
2001, Grace et al. 2002, Dirnböck et al.
2003, Dullinger et al. 2004). For this reason, the
composition and structure of alpine and nival communities
are very likely to change, and threatening of nival
flora is predicted (Guisan and Theurillat 2000,
Gottfriedetal. 2002, Walther 2004).


Although, many research findings support the clear
impact of climate change to forests vegetation (e.g.
IPCC 2007), there is no doubt that the results of present
climate projections reflect some degrees of uncertainty
(see, e.g.Rial etal. 2004, Von Storch etal. 2004)
that are due to the incomplete understanding of the climate
as a system and its complex interactions with the
biosphere and oceans. Beside the relatively uncertain
climate-change model, a potentially changed ecological
niche of existing forest vegetation types under
changed climate or even the ecological niche of future
forest vegetation types with other dominant tree species
have not been considered. Moreover, the secondary
effects of climate change (e.g. higher frequency of
forest fires, land use change, and especially effects of
tree diseases and harmful pests and their new appearances
(Jurc andOgris 2006,Jurc etal. 2006,Ogris
et al. 2006, 2008,Piškur etal. 2011)) have not been
foreseen in the model.


On particular sites in the centre of the current area
of distribution of beech in central Europe, beech may
lose its dominance and growing potential as compared
to drought or flood-tolerant species (Geßler et al.
2006). Since similar impacts are also likely to occur in
the studied area, forest policy and management need to
take such risk into consideration. Species-rich forests
with a high resilience potential will reduce the risk for
forestry related to the prognosticated climate development
in this region.


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS – Zahvala


The study has been financially supported by national
project “Adaptation of forest management to climate
changes in relation to expected changes of forest
traits and forest spatial changes,V4-0494”, funded by
the Ministry ofAgriculture, Forestry and Food and by
the Slovenian ResearchAgency, and by the research
programme P4-0107 funded by the Slovenian Research


REFERENCES
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Agency.Thanks to Dragan Matijašić for Croatian language
corrections and for manuscript improvement.
Thank you to all reviewers whose criticism has considerably
improved an earlier version of the manuscript.
The English language of the manuscript was checked
by Terry Troy Jackson.


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