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ŠUMARSKI LIST 9-10/2011 str. 65     <-- 65 -->        PDF

H. Uhlíková, O. Nakládal, P. Jakubcová, M. Turčáni: OUTBREAKS OF THE NUN MOTH (Lymantria monacha) ...Šumarski list br. 9–10, CXXXV (2011), 477-486
Period/yearof Locality/
outbreakregionDetailsReferences
Razdoblje/Lokalitet/PodrobnostiIzvori
godina gradacijepodručje
1917-1927Bohemia, west
Moravia
the greatest catastrophe of the nun moth
in the Czech Republic;P. abies,
P. sylvestris, L. decidua, A. alba,
P. menziesii, broadleaves
razdoblje najjače gradacije smrekova
prelca u Češkoj;P. abies, P. sylvestris,
L. decidua,A. alba, P. menziesii,listače
Horák (1982), Hošek (1981),
Hošek &Tomandl (1965),
Komárek (1931), Novák (1966),
Novák (1967a), Novák (1967b),
Novák (1967c), Novák (1968b),
Novák (1969a), Novák (1969e),
Novák (1972), Novák (1975),
Tlapák (1965a),Tlapák (1965b)
1931-1938Křivoklát, Milevsko,
Světlá nad Sázavou,
Nové Syrovice
ended through polyhedral disease
okončana poliedrijom gusjenica
Hošek (1981), Novák (1966),
Novák (1967b), Novák (1975)
1947Teplá, Sokolíčko52 000 m
3
Hošek (1981), Ministr (1970),
Tlapák (1963)
1965-1967Náměšť n. Oslavou,
Jaroměřice, Jemnice
chemical spraying
suzbijanje kemijskim insekticidima
Hošek (1981), Švestka (1968)
1993-1996Hořovice, Zbiroh,
Rájec,Tišnov,
Brdy Hills,
Jindřichův Hradec,
Pacov, Jihlava, Trutnov,
Dvůr Králové, Horní
Maršov, Boskovice
heavy/P. abies, L. decidua/34 000 ha;
chemical spraying
jaka defolijacija/P. abies, L.
decidua/34 000 ha; suzbijanje
kemijskim insekticidima
Liška & Šrůtka (1998),
Zahradník et al. (1995)


Data processing–
The database LYMONDATof nun moth outbreaks in
the CzechRepublic was created onthe basis ofhistorical
data survey. Today, there are2,557 records. The databasecontainsinformationincludingtheyearorperiod

of occurrence, thelocation ofoutbreaks and extent of
nun moth feeding, feeding level, volume of nun moth
timber harvested, and information about host tree
species, if it wasmentioned.
Each period was divided into individual years for the
purpose of digitalization. Information about defoliation
levels in the primary resources isquitevariable(and
sometimes very brief).Therefore,eachrecordwasassigned
anintensity rating(ranging from1–4).Arating of
4indicates data where we knowthatthere was heavy defoliation
(70–100%). A rating of 3 equals strong nun
moth feeding (25–70%), 2 corresponds tolight feeding
(less than 25%).Arating of1includes datawith a sporadicoccurrence
ofnun moth. In some cases the feeding
level was not identified.
Using information from this database, two maps of
feeding levels were created. In order to visualize the spatial
distribution of individual records inArcGIS,WGS84 coordinates
were assigned to individual records. Special care
was taken to avoid duplication of records within one year.
The first map is a simple map showing the feeding intensity
in stands. For thepurposeof thisarticle,points of nun moth
occurrence wererecorded on the level of forest districts.


Obrada podataka


For the second map we gave cumulative values to
each point and subsequently, spatial interpolation using
Ordinary Kriging was used to predict the risk outbreak
regions of the nun moth.The correlation between source
data, expressed in as a variogram, determines the estimated
value at an unsampled location.The variogram is
a function describing the degree of spatial dependence
of data investigated. It is defined as the expected
squared increment of the values between two locations
(Wackernagel2003). Formally, this is given as:


1
N(h)
2


.(h) = .[z(xi)–z(xi
+ h)]


2N (h)


i=1


wherez(xi) is variable at positionx,z(xi+h) denotes a
variable separated by vector h (lag), with specified
magnitude and direction. N(h) is the total number of
pairs used to compute the value of the variogram for a
specified lag.


Ordinary Kriging is a univariate stationary technique
for spatial interpolation.This is of the form:


kk


Z(x) =..iZ(xi)subject to..i=1


0
i=1i=1


where Z(x) is an estimator at site xgiven by the


00


linear combination of random variablesZ(xi) at sitesxi.