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ŠUMARSKI LIST 9-10/2011 str. 66     <-- 66 -->        PDF

H. Uhlíková, O. Nakládal, P. Jakubcová, M. Turčáni: OUTBREAKS OF THE NUN MOTH (Lymantria monacha) ...Šumarski list br. 9–10, CXXXV (2011), 477-486
Impartiality of the prediction and the smallest meanIsaaks& Srivastava(1989), Wackernagel
square error of prediction (prediction variance) are en-(2003) andOlea(1999).
sured. A more detailed description can be found in


3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION – Rezultati i rasprava
The first map (Fig. 1) shows spots (on the level of
forest districts) where the nun moth occurred in relation
to feeding intensity during the years 1784–2010
(the oldest written record comes from 1784).There are
areas where the nun moth was recorded at least once.
This map however, does not reflect the fact that the nun
moth could occur there repeatedly.


As can be seen, there are regions where the nun moth
has never been recorded. It is mainly in south Moravia
and the Šumava Mountains, upperparts ofthe Giant
Mountains, part of the Labe Basin, theAš region, as well
as others.The reason for the absence of this species was
probably an absence of host plants (at lower elevations)
or adverse climatic conditions (in high-elevation forests).


The second map (Fig. 2) gives a better idea of which
areas were attacked repeatedly. From a historicalview,
the riskiestregions appear to be the Bohemian-Mora


vian Highlands,Třeboň Basin, Brdy Hills, Nový Bor region
and Opava region. In the long run, it shows that an
optimum range of nun moth has shifted in the Czech
Republic. Based on historical data, the Třeboň Basin
(average altitude is 457 m a. s. l.) was determined as a
risk region where the nun moth defoliated pine there,


th


mainly up to the end of the 19century (Anonymous
1967). Nowadays the hot spots do not arise in lower altitudes.
On the contrary, the Brdy Hills (average altitude
is 640 m a. s. l.) are attacked more than the historical
data would indicate. It is obvious that the hot spots are
shifting to the higher altitudes. Somedistortionin the
mapis due to numerous records from the largest
calamity of the nun moth in the Czech Republic in the
1920s.The nun moth has also occurred in the regions
where there were not optimal conditions for development
(with regard to altitude and climatic conditions).


Figure 1
Location of the nun moth outbreaks (on the level of forest districts) in relation to feeding intensity in the Czech Republic
(1784-2010). 4 – defoliation 70-100%, 3 – defoliation 25-70%, 2 – defoliation <25%, 1 – sporadic occurrence, . – not identified.


Slika 1.Područja gradacija smrekova prelca (na prostornoj razini gospodarske jedinice) u odnosu na jačinu defolijacije u Češkoj
(1784-2010). 4 – defolijacija 70-100%, 3 – defolijacija 25-70%, 2 – defolijacija <25%, 1 – sporadična pojava,
. – jačina defolijacije nepoznata.