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ŠUMARSKI LIST 3-4/2013 str. 23     <-- 23 -->        PDF

The merger of the technological-economic simulation model with the multi-criteria decision analysis represents a modern approach in developing systems to support decision-making on investments. A similar approach was used by Herrero et al. (1999), Pažek et al. (2006), Rozman et al. (2006), Kühmaier and Stampfer (2010), and Vindiš (2010). Despite the general consensus on the environmental and social benefits of agroforestry systems, the full scope of a comprehensive analysis of the agroforestry systems pronounced deficit (Cacho 2001). Previous research focused on modeling the financial effects of agroforestry systems (Neupane and Thapa 2001, Molua 2005). Tamabula and Sinden (2000) took a step forward and included the impacts on the environment in simulation. Palma et al. (2007) proposed the use of multi-criteria analysis for a comprehensive economic analysis of the environmental effects of agroforestry systems.
The aim and the goal of this paper is to investigate and offer a solution for a concrete problem of regulation of degraded land – if possible with agroforestry system (silvopastoral system). Paper presents a simulation model for different scenarios for environment regulation of degraded land, which is combined with a multi-criteria analysis. The simulated alternatives are additionally evaluated with a multi-attribute decision tool (i.e., the Expert Choice decision support system (AHP)). The paper is organized as follows: A description of the study area is provided first, followed by the methodology and model development. The results are described in the next section. Main findings and final remarks conclude this article.
Study area
Područje istraživanja
The study area is located around landfill Gajke, Ptuj, NE Slovenia (46°25’ N, 15°54’ E, 224 m a.s.l.). The dissemination of odor has greatly reduced the value of the land. Because of the exceeding of the 75 % limit values, groundwater is also degraded. The area of land (study area) around landfill Gajke is 234.5 ha and is divided into five smaller areas (Area 1 – 41.6 ha, Area 2 – 68.8 ha, Area 3 – 68.5 ha, Area 4 – 48.1 ha, Area 5 – 7.5 ha). Area 5 is intended for fodder production and not for wild game breeding (enclosure). The climatic type is sub-Panonic, with cold winters and hot summers. The annual mean temperature is 10.7 °C, and annual precipitation is 900 mm (SORS 2012).
For the purpose of our case study, we developed an integrated technological-economic deterministic simulation model by which we assessed the economic viability of investments and the need for multi-criteria decision analysis gathered from the simulation model for each scenario. The structure of the decision simulation model (DSM) is shown in Figure 1.
Simulation model
Simulacijski model
The simulation model was developed in Excel and Visual Basic spreadsheets for applications, which enable the simulation of different scenarios. It consists of three main models: