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ŠUMARSKI LIST 3-4/2013 str. 31     <-- 31 -->        PDF

criteria were changed in order to observe the impact on the results – scenario 160 – 50 was assessed as best (Table 10).
Scenario 160 (50 years) is the most appropriate alternative for the environment regulation around landfill Gajke, because it satisfy to the given objectives of economic, technologic and mostly environmental criteria.
Conclusions
Zaključci
In the first phase, an integrated computer-based deterministic simulation model was developed. With the help of the simulation model, the economic viability of scenarios for the regulation of the environment could be assessed. The simulation model consisted of several sub-models, which were integrally connected with each other. Each integrally connected sub-model represented a single unit. Relations between the variables of each model were expressed through a formal mathematical language in the form of a number of complex equations and expressed relationships. The result of the computer-based simulation model was a CBA, with the basic indicators being NPV and IRR. The highest NPV (342,753.17 €) and IRR (11.1 % at an 8.0 % annual discount rate) were estimated for Scenario 152 (50 years, organic farming of red deer, settlement of all four areas in the first year, hinds intended for sale). Trees were not involved in this scenario. After the first phase, the results included only economic aspects and did not include the assessment of environmental and technological aspects, so further model development was necessary. In the second phase, multi-criteria analysis (AHP) was used. Taking into account environmental and technological aspects, Scenario 160 (50 years, organic farming of red deer in a silvopastoral system, settlement of all four areas in the first year, hinds intended for sale) with multi-criteria evaluation EC = 0.054 was best estimated. The silvopastoral system included tree species Acer pseudoplatanus, Fraxinus excelsior, Prunus avium, and Alnus glutinosa, with a tree density of 248 trees/ha (62 of each tree species/ha). The NPV of this scenario at an 8.0 % annual discount rate was 280,684.73 €, and the IRR was 10.1 %. With a tree density of 248/ha and a 5 % predicted loss, a revenue of 10,755.38 €/ha can be reached. Given the current trends of self-sufficiency of energy resources in the region, we assume that in the future, there will be no problems with the sale of saw logs.
The ultimate decision to invest in any agroforestry system lies with the investors. However, the best economic results do not necessarily reflect the best decisions. The benefits of silvopastoral systems are mainly in environmental services "externalities" such as biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and animal welfare. We concluded that the presented model can be regarded as a useful tool for the assessment of environment regulation and offers investors the opportunity for planning and decision-making in a virtual environment before intervening in real environments. The final result of each model depends on the quality of the input information, since the system operates on the principle "garbage-in, garbage-out." Experienced experts should therefore be involved in model development. With appropriate modification, the model developed here could also be applied in the process of agroforestry systems planning, where individual environment regulation problems exist.