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ŠUMARSKI LIST 11-12/2021 str. 18     <-- 18 -->        PDF

*Master Plan šumarske infrastrukture u Federaciji BiH 2017:
*Plan poslovanja ŠGD »Hercegbosanske šume« d.o.o. Kupres za 2021. godinu.
The paper presents the method of calculating planned prices of timber harvesting operations, which are the subject of public tenders in the forest management company Hercegbosanske šume Ltd. Kupres and the analysis of deviations of the planned from the contracted (realised) prices for timber harvesting operations in 97 groups of compartments, which were the subject of public tenders in 2019 and 2020. Descriptive and correlation statistical analysis also included stand and terrain indicators in groups of compartments in public tenders: area, net volume of marked trees, harvesting density, number of marked trees per hectare, volume of medium marked tree, slope, average timber extraction distance, terrain stoniness and parameter of uphill timber extraction. The test of dependent data pairs indicated that there is a statistically significant difference between planned and contracted prices of timber harvesting operations (t = 7,78, p < 0.001), and the results of correlation analysis confirmed the connection of influential factors of forest operations with the contracted and planned timber harvesting prices. Due to the statistically significant (p < 0.05) and very strong correlation with the contracted and the planned price of the timber harvesting operations calculated by the presented method, the dependence was equalized by a linear regression model with a coefficient of determination of 0.667. In conclusion, the method of calculating the planned price of timber harvesting operations is a good predictor of what can be contracted prices in public tenders thus showing its suitability in future calculations. Weak and negative correlation (p < 0.05, r = -0.22) of the difference between the contracted and planned price of the timber harvesting operations on the volume of the medium marked tree, indicated future monitoring to determine its causes, which could be: 1) mutual competition between timber harvesting operations providers with a larger volume of medium marked tree or 2) overestimation of the volume of medium marked tree in the presented model. Guidelines for increasing the accuracy of determining input parameters (average timber extraction distance, slope, terrain stoniness, and parameter of uphill timber extraction) are also presented. Given that the calculation is related to the average planned price at the level of forest management, which is determined by the management of the company, it is necessary to constantly monitor the market in order to react in time if major oscillations occur.
Key words: timber harvesting, planned price, contracted price, market